The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models.
The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.
The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.
The ensemble of dynamical forecasts indicates that the SPCZ is expected to sit slightly south of normal for this time of year near and west of the International Dateline. In general, the models indicate weak SPCZ activity with the transition into winter, with some localized convection near eastern Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.
