Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
• The weak La Niña – like pattern that was present in the previous months has vanished.
• The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are very likely (89 % chance) to persist for the coming three months (October to December 2013).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is forecast to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu and the Marquesas.
• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Niue, Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands, Tonga, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Northern Cook Islands.
• Near or above average SST is forecast for Fiji, Niue, the Southern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati, Tonga and Wallis and Futuna.