05 April 2013
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The tropical Pacific Ocean still exhibits slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the extreme west of the Pacific warm pool, while the central and eastern Pacific SSTs are slightly cooler than normal.
- Neutral ENSO conditions exist at present, and all oceanic and atmospheric indicators are close to the neutral range.
- The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist over the coming three months (April to June 2013).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to sit slightly south of its climatological position.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, the Northern Cook Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Tuamotu Islands and Tokelau.
- Near normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia.
- Near normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Fiji, the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and the Tuamotu Islands.
