05 November 2012
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- The Tropical Pacific Ocean is still warmer than normal, but the atmosphere has yet to show any significant response to the ocean.
- According to the global forecast models, there is an approximately 50 percent chance of neutral versus weak El Niño conditions over November 2012 – January 2013.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to be close to its climatological position for most of the Pacific, and to remain slightly north of normal to the east of 160°W.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, New Caledonia and Vanuatu.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, Eastern and Western Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands and Tokelau.
- Sea surface temperatures are still expected to be warmer than normal and show a weak El Niño – like pattern, especially near the Equator.
