The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The green line indicates the averate SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.
For the coming three months, the models are in agreement about the SPCZ position being displaced slightly southwest of normal, with the rainfall band being situated over southern Papua New Guinea, Northern Vanuatu, Samoa, and the Society Islands.
Relative to past months, the SPCZ is expected to move northward under ENSO neutral conditions.
The areas of greatest uncertanity are to the east of the Dateline near Samoa and the Southern Cook Islands, and the best model agreement is near French Polynesia, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea.
