07 April 2011
Introduction to Island Climate Update 127 - April 2011
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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La Niña in the equatorial Pacific region continues to show signs of weakening. Many dynamical and statistical climate models project deterioration of the event in the coming three months. ENSO neutral conditions are expected by the onset of austral winter.
Update of tropical cyclone forecast for 2010-11 season
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Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) have occurred in the SW Pacific region this season. Normal or above normal TC occurrence is still expected for the remainder of the season. Increased activity to the west of Fiji in the Coral Sea and North Tasman region is anticipated. Risk is elevated for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and New Zealand.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
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Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
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The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to be displaced slightly southwest of normal. Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, Niue, Tonga, and the Austral Islands.
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Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas and the Northern Cook Islands, while the Austral Islands are expected to have above normal SSTs.
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