07 February 2011
Introduction to Island Climate Update 125 - February 2011
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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A strong La Niña continues in the equatorial Pacific region. Most dynamical and statistical climate models project persistence of the event through Austral summer and into autumn 2011. A weak La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions are expected by the onset of Austral winter.
Update of tropical cyclone forecast for 2010-11 season
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Six tropical cyclones (TCs) have occurred in the SW Pacific region this season. Normal or above normal TC occurrence, and at least six more named storms, are expected between February and the end of April. Increased activity to the west of Fiji in the Coral Sea and North Tasman region is anticipated. Risk is elevated for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and New Zealand.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
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Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands and the Tuamotu Archipelago.
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The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to be displaced southwest of normal. Above normal rainfall is expected for New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, and Tonga.
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Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas, Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. New Caledonia, Fiji, Niue, Tonga, and Vanuatu are expected to have above normal SSTs.
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