Introduction

Introduction to Island Climate Update 121 - October 2010

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• La Niña exists in the equatorial Pacific region. All dynamical climate models project continuation of La Niña through Austral summer. The event is expected to continue into early autumn 2011.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2010-11 season

• Normal or above normal tropical cyclone occurrence is expected, with increased activity to the west of Fiji in the Coral Sea and North Tasman region. Risk is elevated for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and New Zealand.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands and the Marquesas.
• The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to be displaced southwest of normal. Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands.
• Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas, Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. New Caledoina, Vanuatu, Fiji, the Southern Cook Islands and the Austral Islands are expected to have above normal sea surface temperatures.

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