Introduction to Island Climate Update 115 - April 2010
Number 115 - April 2010
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• Moderately strong El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, but the event is weakening. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño through autumn 2010, and neutral conditions for austral winter.
Tropical cyclone guidance
• For the remainder of the season, tropical cyclone risk is elevated for the Solomon Islands, and for countries to the east of the Date Line, including Niue, Tonga, and the Southern Cook Islands.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Vanuatu and the Marquesas.
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati. SSTs are expected to be near or below normal around Niue, Tonga and Pitcairn Island.
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