Introduction

September's climate. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts.

Number 109 - October 2009

September’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was weakly coherent this past month, and contracted toward northern Papua New Guinea.
• Suppressed convection in the central part of the Southwest Pacific near Tokelau and the Northern Cook Islands.
• Mostly well below normal rainfall for many parts of Vanuatu and New Caledonia.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts

• El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño through 2009 and into 2010.
• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea. Near or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Niue, and Tonga.
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati. Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu.
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Marquesas, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Western Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea. SSTs are expected to be near or below normal around Fiji, and near normal elsewhere in the southwest Pacific.

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