22 June 2009
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 105 – June 2009
May’s climate
- The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was positioned southwest of normal.
- Suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and along the Equator extending east through Nauru and Eastern Kiribati.
- Mostly well above normal rainfall for New Caledonia and many parts of Fiji.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts
- ENSO neutral conditions exist in the tropical Pacific. Most climate models project ENSO neutral conditions for winter 2009. Some climate models suggest El Niño could develop early in Austral spring.
- Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Marquesas and the Northern Cook Islands.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Western Kiribati, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Austral Islands.
- Above normal SSTs are forecast for Papua New Guinea. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for the western half of the southwest Pacific. Near normal SSTs are expected elsewhere.
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