Adapting to climate change is dynamic and uncertain. This step provides guidance on how you can keep your analysis, decisions and responses relevant and up-to-date in a continually changing environment.
5.1. Extended learning and understanding of uncertainties and information gaps
Task 5.1: Analyse your key climate uncertainties and information gaps in detail and get expert help, if needed.
You can do this assessment at the same time as you start to act on the other risks you have identified.
Risk management is an iterative process, and you should expect to revisit steps as more information is discovered, new research is conducted or your understanding increases.
Consider the key uncertainties and information gaps in the work you have already done through this Toolbox process, such as the:
- effects of climate change in your area
- impacts on your business or community
- ways to manage the impacts
- costs and benefits of adaptation
- priorities for action to manage risk.
Use the resources and tools in each step to focus your efforts and if necessary get expert help in specific areas to reduce uncertainty, and modify your previous steps and implementation plan accordingly.
Contact family, neighbours, sectors, local groups, councils, or government agencies to see if any additional work has been done that could help you. Business partners, investment advisors, government, non-government organisations and banks all have an interest in your future and can provide help on major investment decisions. A number of local and regional governments have detailed information on the risks in your area. Think about working with others to get more information and develop solutions.
5.2. How often should you review your decisions?
Task 5.2: Develop an effective monitoring and evaluation programme or include this within your existing measurement systems. Table 5.2 can be used as a template for monitoring and evaluation. You may also want to go back and revise Table 4.5 as part of this process.
Your objectives and priorities will shift with time, and circumstances could change, so new risks may arise or change in priority. Climate risks may also change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prepares comprehensive Assessment Reports about knowledge on climate change, its causes, potential impacts and response options and these are updated approximately every six years. Other new or updated information will also become available. NIWA updates New Zealand’s climate scenarios shortly after each IPCC Assessment round.
Additionally, with the introduction of the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act in 2019, the Climate Change Commission will complete a national risk assessment every six years. See the resources section for key websites to monitor new information.
Review your decisions annually, or sooner if a factor that has influenced your response changes significantly (e.g. you are hit by an extreme weather event or important new climate change information becomes available).
Consider:
- Are the outcomes of your actions consistent with your expectations of how they would perform (i.e. did they work)?
- Which actions worked well and which did not; were there any unanticipated effects?
- Is there any new climate information available that could alter the effectiveness of your adaptation measures (e.g. changes to sea level or extreme weather projections)?
A monitoring programme should:
- be clear about what success means for you and the actions you choose
- describe how the review will feed back into business or organisation decisions
- show changes in risks (including opportunities) and options
- monitor sources for new information on climate change.
5.3. When should you change your action plan?
Task 5.3: Alter your previous responses based on your monitoring and evaluation plan and new information you have collected.
You should improve your action plan if it does not deliver the benefits you were expecting it to, and if the options you chose have not performed as you expected them to. Ideally you should build the review of your adaptation to climate change into your yearly business/organisational reviews.
Congratulations, you have completed the New Zealand Climate Change Adaptation Toolbox!
Please continue to update the risk management and adaptation plan you have developed through the Toolbox steps in the years to come. It is important to keep up-to-date with the climate projections and resources on the Toolbox’s resources page and NIWA’s website.
If you have any enquiries or feedback on the Climate Change Adaptation Toolbox, please contact NIWA at [email protected].